Why is Pythagorean Theorem Very Appropriate for Sports Betting?

In general, the Pythagorean theorem is used when placing bets on American sports (baseball, basketball). But many players have a question, but can it be used in football? Mark Taylor, an analyst, explained why the use of the Pythagorean theorem can become a fairly profitable long-term strategy when placing sports bets.

The Pythagorean theorem and what it is like

Two millennia later, a well-known baseball analyst (Bill James) took the equations of the theorem and reworked it into his version of the Pythagorean theorem . The revised version allows you to calculate the possible percentage of wins in the context of points scored or lost, or jogs, but not only based on the actual victory rate.

The theorem looks like this:

% wins = (number of points or jumps ^ x) / (number of points or jogs + number of points lost or jogs ^ x)

It so happened that teams often score goals than win in matches, and that’s why this information is more valuable and gives the strength of the team more representation than winning. In the matches, players score not only in situations where there are all the necessary conditions for this.

The team can score when it is significantly stronger than opponents, but it can also miss goals if the gap between rivals is small. The data on the situations in which the team plays better (when analyzing a small sample) can significantly affect not only the team percentage of wins, but also the place in the ranking.

In short, the team whose results are better than the expected indicators can be considered “lucky”, and the team that performed worse than the expected results is “unsuccessful”, but there is no guarantee that this state of affairs will be in the future.

This theorem was first used in baseball, but soon it was used in basketball, American football, and later in European football.

Using the Pythagorean theorem for betting on football

Unlike American sports such as baseball and American football, the use of the theorem in conventional football is a little problematic, since there already appears a draw factor (in American kinds the draw factor is not taken into account) and many other factors that affect the final result of calculations using theorem.

If you use the Pythagorean theorem in regular football, one of the main problems is the need to take into account the possibility of a draw, and also take into account the environmental conditions that affect whether the goal is scored or not. There are many football leagues and it is necessary to take into account the fact that in some leagues the chance to score a goal is significantly higher than in others.

Sometimes, because of the red card, the team can stay in the minority and this also has a big impact on the number of goals scored.

James, in his equation used the initial index equal to 2 (as in the original equation), but he changed the value of the power of X, and because of this it was possible to reduce the standard deviation between the predicted and the actual number of victories. Baseball often uses 1.83 (instead of 2).

If you take a football match, then a similar forecasting approach is used, and the discrepancy between the expected figures calculated by the Pythagorean theorem and the actual results in the matches of this sport is reached at the minimum value at the 1.35 level, and not 2.

It is very simple to calculate the percentage of victories in those sports where a draw happens very rarely, but in football nobody’s a frequent occurrence. So, the percentage of wins is often equal to the percentage of points that can be scored, and at the same time consider whether the team will be able to earn a point in the game with a draw, even though the goal in this match could not be scored.

In total for the season you can score 114 points. If you take into account a team that has a true winning percentage of 50%, then, according to this reasoning, it’s possible that they will be able to complete the season by typing 57 points.

Further modification of the Pythagorean equation concerns changes in the value of the components in the numerator and denominator, as well as the use of the raised figures, which represent the number of goals scored and conceded, which allows to take into account the variable conditions of the match, which may affect whether the goal is scored or not.

The probability of a draw for a team that very rarely scores and rarely misses is higher than for a team that often misses goals and often scores.

As the model improves, the standard deviation gradually decreases, between the predicted and the actual number of victories. This indicates how much it depends on the choice of the exponent.

If you use a power of two, then the standard deviation is 10 points for each team that participated in the Premier League 2014-2015. But if you use a 1.35, that value is reduced to six points, and if you take into account the environmental conditions on the field, the deviation is reduced to 4.4 points.

How to determine the total number of points per season

The Pythagorean theorem is often used to determine if the number of points scored by the team during the season is justified from the point of view of the goals scored. Also, can these data indicate that the team will continue at the same level in the future.

In order to exclude the element of luck from the real skills of the team, they also determine the difference in goals scored.

For example, in the season 2011-12, the Newcastle team scored almost 10 points more than the expected result, calculated by the Pythagorean theorem, for the team that scored 56 and missed 51 goals.

Even despite the fact that the team has repeatedly won thanks to one goal scored, as well as several serious defeats, the Newcastle team, which scored just 5 goals more than missed, is unlikely to be able to repeat this result. And the next season, when the team scored fewer points, it was quite expected.

The example below shows the number of Premier League seasons in which teams ranked top and ranked above or below the expected result calculated by the Pythagorean theorem. For most teams, the indicators are almost the same, which is quite expected (based on the luck factor of their success or failure).

Manchester stands out against the general background. The team’s total number of points scored greatly exceeded the stats scored and missed in 17 of the 23 seasons it played in the Premier League.

This result was achieved thanks to the coach, Sir Alex Ferguson, and some studies have shown that Manchester players have extraordinary abilities, due to which they score the winning goals in the last minutes of the game.

Even there was an opinion that, presumably, beyond the achievement of Manchester under the leadership of Sir Ferguson, in part can be explained by the level of the team’s most players.

Liverpool performed worse than expected result, but confidence that this trend will be permanent there.

The real results of the team in 8 seasons were three points or more lower than expected. During the season, on average, the result was lower by 1.7 points, which was almost half of the average points that Manchester exceeded the expected for him.

In many cases, the subsequent effectiveness of the team in the league, more consistent with the calculation of the Pythagorean theorem, than the total number of points scored earlier.

How to apply the Pythagorean theorem correctly

Studies show that the actual number of points collected during one season is much better compared with last year’s expected figure (calculated by the Pythagorean theorem), and not with the number of points collected this season.

The most interesting case was in 1992-1993, when the Norwich team completed the Premier League season, which consisted of 42 games. She finished third in the standings with 72 points and this despite the fact that she scored 61 times and missed 65. In 16 games, the victory was achieved due to the difference in 1 goal, but the figure that was calculated by the Pythagorean theorem was 55 points, and in 1993-1994 the team slid to 12th place, gaining 53 points.

Eight out of ten teams, in the history of the Premier League, surpassed all expectations and caused great surprise, the next season gaining fewer points. 9 out of 10 scored in the next season a greater number of points than calculated by the theorem of Pythagoras.

In the 2014-2015 season lucky were Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool, whose results exceeded the expected, calculated by the Pythagorean theorem. Chelsea and Tottenham exceeded the result by 9, and Liverpool by 7 points.