Which Betting Markets you Should Pick for Regular Profits?

In a recent article, we examined the features and differences in predicting the main outcomes and totals in football. However, these two dominant areas of bookmaking are not limited to. In the line you can also find the so-called small markets, offers to bet on various types of statistics.

What can be attributed to small markets?

The set of factors for analyzing the main results and totals is very different from each other, but for each subspecies of statistics there is a different approach. We will talk about these nuances in this review, which factors and how to take into account when forecasting certain statistical indicators.

To small markets in football the following markets are included:

• Fouls;
• Yellow cards;
• Corners;
• Offsides;
• Shots on goal and on target.

There is still every kind of exotic, in the form of substitutions and outs, but we will talk about more applied options that are predictable and more common in many popular betting shops. They are called small markets because of the low limits on the amounts that can be set at a time. Also an indirect sign of a small market is a higher margin than for big markets.

This is due to the fact that bookmakers less meticulously analyze the prerequisites for statistics, and set the odds mainly for statistics. This makes it possible for professional bettors to more often find errors and odds in the line to small markets. The margin and the maximum limits are designed to cut profit pro. In the opening, this did not stop, because the preponderance often happen where a large surplus.

All these statistics indicators are presented in the form of blocks, by analogy with the usual indicators of outcomes and totals:

• Victory on a specific indicator;
• Handicap victory;
• Total Over or Under;
• ITO or ITU.

We will go through each of the directions, analyzing sets of factors. We will make remarks on how to interpret certain parameters, depending on these subspecies of bets.

Let us briefly recall a set of factors, which is primarily considered to predict the main outcomes and totals. This will be useful for comparison, as parsing small markets. We will see what factors are universal and useful in the analysis of any outcome on football, and what are narrowly focused and specific, suitable only for a single market. So, to predict the most popular types of bets in football are used:

• Motivation and difference in the motivations of rivals;
• Strength (class and game uniform);
• The optimality of the compositions;
• The factor of your field;
• Game styles;
• History of personal meetings, team relationships;
• The calendar;
• Cover;
• Weather.

Now let’s see how things are with small markets.

Fouls and yellow cards

Violations of the rules and yellow cards will be considered together, since these markets are interconnected. In some BSs both options are presented, but somewhere only one. Betting on yellow cards is more common.

The difference between these markets is obvious. The judge in most cases will whistle obvious fouls, and the counter for this indicator will accumulate. As for the issuance of yellow cards, this is largely the prerogative of the arbiter, which means that the human factor intervenes more. A simple rule applies to this case: avoid matches with referees from some countries if they specialize in Total Over.

So, what factors influence foul and warning forecasts? The motivation, the importance of the game, as it was in demand for the main outcomes and total goals, is nowhere without it here. However, the context is a little different.

When trying to identify an advantage, a potential winner of the match, we seek out the difference in motivation. Here, when analyzing the rigidity of the game, the potential for an abundance of fouls and warnings, the mutual charge of the opponents, that is, equal motivation, is important to us. So, if equality is achieved at the level of focus on the result, and the degree of incidence is expected to be very high, then it is often worth abandoning traditional bets on big markets, and turn your eyes to such bets.

The balance of power of opponents is likely to affect not the choice itself to bet or not to bet on fouls, w / c, but on the type of bet. If the forces are close in level, then it is worth considering the total fouls or yellow cards more than some value. Usually in this direction and act. On of Total Under pose rare. In general, correct teams have “eclipses” with unreasonable and unexpected stalling. So Total Under often fails and it is difficult to predict this direction reliably. Using only statistics is not very reasonable, why, we will analyze further.

If the teams are different in strength, and especially in terms of class, then this is an occasion to consider the victory of a less class team by not very honorable indicators: fouls and railway. You can even consider winning with a minus handicap. The idea here is quite simple. A cooler, technical team will attack. The midfielders and defenders of the underdog will have no choice but to tear down these efforts by means of violations. Cards in a considerable quantity will not keep you waiting.

In addition, the total fouls or “mustard” is in greater demand, since it insures against various force majeure. Suddenly, the underdog players will provoke stellar rivals and they will surpass them in rudeness and cards. So Total Over is more reliable.

The optimality of the compositions, as well as the factor of their field, practically does not directly affect the indicators of fouls and cards. Own glade can only be partially taken into account when assessing motivation, mood, if it suddenly seems initially that the guests are more cool and they supposedly need it. With their stands, no self-respecting team will concede. The lack of technology and skill, as always, will be compensated by rudeness and rigidity, with corresponding consequences.

Game styles are one of the most important factors in predicting bets related to rule violations. Some teams play fast, technical, even elegant football. They often have a lot of light, brisk performers. Of course, if two such vis-a-vis meet each other, then many yellow cards should not be expected.

On the other hand, there are teams demonstrating tougher power football. A simple attack, not the fastest defense, which compensates for this with good anthropometry and rigidity. When such teams meet with more technical or among themselves, the total fouls or y/c breaks through more often than not.

The direct results of past personal meetings have little effect on the rudeness of the game ahead. Much more important is the emotional color of those past confrontations. There are very principled rivals, but there are quite neutral ones. So it’s worth not just a quick glance at the accounts of past “faces”, but also view their statistics.

To begin with, understand what motivation was then, and correlate with the number of fouls, yellow cards that the parties scored. Against the background of such a background, a completely clear forecast may emerge that in the upcoming meeting the opponents will not spare each other.

If the direct history of personal meetings is scarce or even absent, as happens in European competitions or at the level of national teams, then it is worth evaluating the relationship at the state level. Knowledge of the history of war and conflict will be here as well as possible to the article. The British against the Irish, Scots, Welsh, Argentines. Anyway, the English teams are pretty tough, and the former colonial status of Britain left a lot of “chiseled teeth” on them around the world.

Turks are against any Balkan teams: Greeks, Bulgarians, Romanians, Cypriots and so on. Albanians, Kosovars against Serbs, Bosnians, Montenegrins, Macedonians. Usually quite tough matches between Italian and Spanish clubs, and in the domestic championships of these countries there are a lot of yellow card matches.

Calendar and weather do not really affect the balance of fouls. The same can be said about covering the field. If one team is rude and takes its more technical opponent on a not very “fast” lawn, then there will be many fouls. However, a good lawn will not save fast-footed players from breaking the rules on them. It’s just that in the first case they will be shot down in space, and in the second, they will be closer to the penalty box. This will not affect the general balance of indicators on violations and cards.

An important factor in predicting these indicators is the arber, their nationality and personal statistics. You should never bet more on fouls or cards in games judged by the British or Germans. In all other cases, judges must be evaluated individually. There are numerous special services on the network that allow you to track the average performance on the yellow cards of different referees.

Surprisingly for many, but only now we are approaching the statistics of past games on fouls and y/c. The thing is that it is these data that are already embedded in the odds. If the bettor will make a start in their forecasts only from this, then the minus in distance is provided. On the contrary, the task of the forecaster is to identify a local anomaly that will contribute to the excess of average values ​​over a long distance. So it is necessary to consider just the spectrum of the above factors, and then check the statistics.

Corner

In the BS line, corner bets also have a distribution for victories, handicaps, total and individual totals for this statistic.

If we consider the whole range of factors, then the difference in class plays a paramount role in betting on victory in the corner. It is expected that a stronger team will attack positionally, swing the flanks, “hang on the gate”, beat a lot from medium distances. All these actions contribute to the recruitment of corners, which means that victory in this indicator becomes more likely.

When betting on total corners, the main factor is no longer the power advantage, but the playing styles of both teams. If you are confident in the effectiveness of the corners from only one of the counterparts, then it is worth taking a victory, or breaking some level of an individual total. If you expect from both teams a sharp attacking game, mutual flank attacks, an abundance of hits, then it is quite appropriate to consider Total Over.

By and large, such predictions are based on the difference in strength and a suitable attacking style of the game, and other factors that are in demand for the main outcomes are not very important here.

As in the case with yellow cards, too many novice players pay too much attention to statistics on corners in past meetings. The average indicator for corners is already taken into account in the odds, so it is not possible to find an advantage only on the basis of such statistics. We suck another matter if we break the matches according to some criteria and estimate the number of corners not in general, but in specific groups. Evaluated by the style of the game, predicted in what way the upcoming match should go.

From a set of past meetings, dozens of extreme fights are found, in which there were the same types of opponents, a similar pattern. Based on the statistics of the corners, one can already find an advantage in such a sample, compared with the line that the bookmakers rolled out. By and large, this will be a statistical confirmation of the same logic that was present when comparing the styles of the game.

Offside

Offside, this is a situation where a pass is given to the striker, who is behind the last defender. As in the case of previously considered small markets, a quite typical set of bets is offered for this type of statistic:

• victory;
• handicaps;
• totals;
• individual totals.

How to predict whether there will be a lot of offsides in the match or not, and who will become the leader by this indicator. The task is very specific. The offside position can be fixed in a variety of situations: simply during attacks, on standards (penalties), with a banal hustle and bustle near the penalty. For these reasons, laying on the Total Under offside is very dangerous.

Quite a significant number of go-aheads of linesman could muster just on a level place. Given the high entropy of the causes of this phenomenon in football, it is necessary to refrain from betting of Total Under for offside. However, loopholes for an adequate analysis for this indicator still exist.

First of all, the team’s play style influences a stable increase in the number of offsides. When a team practices long casts, passes contrary to fast forwards or wings, the number of such provisions increases by a multiple. They say about some of the attackers that they literally live on the verge of an offside.

So, the composition factor is immediately intertwined. If a team does not play in a viscous possession with a progressive approach to the goal, namely in the expectation of jerking attacking players behind the backs of the defenders, then this is potentially a very “uphill” position for offsides.

In fact, the other factors are not of particular importance, since the number of offsides is not directly tied to the outcome of the game. It is necessary to identify the teams that put football on defense, but in the attack they rely on long balls. If such a club meets a weaker opponent playing an even deafer defense, then you can bet on the victory of the first team on offsides. If both teams are located in such a manner of football, then it makes more sense to consider the total offside more.

Often, when analyzing off-site situations, purely statistics on these indicators in past meetings are considered. However, we recommend that you use this data for guidance only. The main emphasis is on the style of the game and the presence of those same runners on the field. If the indicator of the number of offsides issued in the BS line seems to be underestimated, we bet on Total Over or the victory of the corresponding side.

Shots on goal and on target

A very interesting type of small markets is the market for bets on shots on goal. They are served in different shops in different interpretations, so read the rules of a particular BS. Somewhere it’s just a shot on goal, somewhere specifically hit on target.

It is logical that this small market is an alternative to quite ordinary bets on victories and on individual totals. There is a very clear correlation between the number of strokes and the overall result. Yes, no doubt, you can beat more than your opponent and lose. Such games come across, but betting professionals are used to thinking remotely. So there is a clear connection between shots, especially shots on target, and goals, and therefore victories.

An exception may be teams that play before a goal is scored and closes. Of the most famous, you can give examples of Juventus Allegri or Atletico Semione. Also, such teams are waving in less top leagues.

Meanwhile, there are a great many acutely attacking teams, which even at 3-0 do not really slow down. So playing bets on blows on their part is a reasonable insurance. It’s a shame when you bet on a high individual total, or a victory with a handicap, but one goal is not enough. At the same time, according to the statistics of blows, the team is much more stable at shooting all its counterparts.

In terms of factors and analytics, impact prediction is very close to what is used for the main outcomes. Just more emphasis is placed on the style of the game. The priority is sharply attacking teams that create many moments at the opponent’s goal. A large role is played by motivation, the optimality of the composition, and the factor of their field, where such teams are especially fierce.

So if you regularly come across annoying defeats on the main outcomes, victories, minus odds, ITO (1.5), then you can try part of the amount allocated for the match, send it to the statistics of hits. If the main result does not grow together, part of the loss is compensated by this indicator, according to which the team will most likely still be ahead.

Conclusions

Prediction of statistical indicators has its own specifics. Disengagement from the main motivation is both a minus and a plus, depending on which side to look at. Bets on basic motivation are considered the most logical and reliable. At the same time, big markets are in the focus of attention of analysts at bookmakers, as well as a large number of professional bettors. From this, opportunities to play at competitive bets by margin are greatly reduced. A few mistakes at all are not enough.

Favorable quotes play and load quickly enough. To get away from such fierce competition, some of the pros are retrained for statistics. Although it is untied from direct motivation, it has a completely understandable base of factors for forecasting, which we spoke about here. These markets allow you to more often find undervalued outcomes and play them with the benefit of distance profit.