Important Information about Bookmaker Lines Every Player should Know
The bookmaker’s betting line is one of the key concepts on which one can characterize one or another bookmaker. The sports betting line is the entire list of possible outcomes of one match, to which bookmakers offer odds and bets.
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In general, the bigger or wider the bookmaker line, the more options the client has to win money within one match. At the largest and self-respecting bookmakers, betting lines are the biggest – the number of events can sometimes reach several hundred.
The essence of the analysis of bookmaker lines
Some professional betters create strategies for betting on line movement. With the right approach, a long-term play on the movement of the line can help correctly guess the outcome.
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In general, this system is built on the analysis of line changes. It is important to be able to correctly classify the causes of line movements. This may be due to multiple bets on the favorite, or the appearance of new data about a particular team.
Often it may simply be that the original line was incorrect or not accurate. In this case, the player’s task, as already mentioned above, is to analyze and draw conclusions correctly.
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Formation of bookmaker lines
Bookmakers place coefficients on different lines in such a way that the client who made bets on all the lines of one match did not leave the bookmaker’s office bankrupt.
Similarly, the coefficients are placed for a particular match, in order to avoid the possibility of a bookmaker’s arb. However, we will not talk about this in detail. Consider how bookmaker betting lines are formed.
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By setting up lines, bookmakers go to the trick to attract more outsiders to the side – they either raise the rating of this team, or reduce the chance of the favorite to win.
The betting line itself may change before the match, depending on many factors. This change in interest to a particular client’s bet is also fundamental, and the coefficient for these events also varies, and also depending on the conditions of the game.
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With live betting, the line generally changes throughout the match dynamically, depending on how events change. It is worth noting that, with line changes, the coefficients for the favorites fall to the end of the match, if the game is under the scenario of winning this.
In particular, minimum changes in the composition of teams, the status of an individual player on the eve of a match, can significantly change the odds for the event, as well as the betting lines for the match.
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Bookmakers always monitor such changes, and reflect them in their odds. A peculiar “butterfly effect” takes place in the bookmaker business.
Analysis of the lines of bookmakers – what influences the changes?
It has already been said above that the main influence on the betting line is provided by the players themselves. And they, in turn, are divided into two classes. The first class is simple players at bets that are looking for opportunities to earn a little while holding major Championships, or simply put on your favorite team.
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Often betting by such players is done almost immediately after the release of the line. Characteristic bets of players of this group on the favorites of matches or total more or less.
Thus, a group of such players have a strong influence on changing lines, but this is not always the case. The second group consists of professional players, or syndicates.
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To learn how to make the right bets on the basis of line analysis, you need to be able to recognize the movement of the lines, which was provoked by the players of the first group, or the players of the second group.
The right players make the right bets, hence the line movements provoked by such players and will be correct.
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The movement of the line usually begins immediately after it leaves. Most professional players are waiting for a convenient moment. So, for example, if the line appears to be a weak player, it can provoke its movement.
Sometimes professionals wait until the fans themselves start moving the line in a certain direction. For example, someone with the edge of his ear heard that the main player of the team will not be able to enter the field.
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This provoked a wave of bets on a certain event, which in turn changed the line in a certain direction, up to an increase in the bet of the favorite. After professionals believe that the line can be played, they make their move.
Here begins a completely different epic, connected with changing lines, provoked by professionals. The line’s motion in this case is called the line transfer – when a sharp change in the line is observed in a short time due to large bets.
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Professional players provoke such changes. Also known as a group such as syndicated players. They work in conjunction with professionals.
Often everything happens as follows. A professional player notices that it is necessary to bet at a certain moment at an event. Similar players send paid mailings to a certain circle of people, with instructions to put on any event.
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So in the near future, on the advice of one of the professionals, a bet is made in a short period, which causes this line to sink – a drastic change of this line in one direction. Players who bet on events on the advice of such a professional are called syndicated, and money for such events is “smart” money.
When monitoring the lines of bookmakers, one rule should be followed, which will help to distinguish the movement due to the bets of “public” from those that are provoked by “smart bets”.
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The bottom line is that professionals change the line in all directions and very quickly, while amateurs change the line in some places and very slowly. Professionals make big bets on events in which they are sure, while public players put small amounts only on favorites. Hence the bet of change of the lines in both cases.
Services and programs for viewing line dynamics
Similar programs and services that monitor the lines of bookmaker offices are used not only by players wishing to successfully play at betting.
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This is useful for bookmakers themselves. Watch how the lines of neighboring bookmakers are changing in order to notice the tendency to change in time, and to advance the line to this side.
In the event that the bookmaker will notice the movement of the line even by 0.5 points, which can happen in a few minutes, he must immediately change his line in this direction. Otherwise, if he does not manage to change the line, the bookmaker can become a victim of syndicated players and take a bet on the line with smart money.
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For this bookmakers use the service Don Best Odds. For players and professionals, you can use the service Hot-odds.com – the most convenient for players, beginners in this matter.
The service allows you to track both the movement of the lines of bookmakers’ offices and find bookmakers who have not yet managed to put this movement on the old terms.
- New predictions for soccer, tennis, hockey, basketball, etc. are created every hour.
Simple players make bets only on the day of the game itself or a few days before the game, regardless of the movement of the line. Professional players, as well as syndicated betters, put on the line only at the time when this line is the most vaginal.
The exception is rare moments, when external factors themselves, except for players, influence bets. This can be weather conditions, in particular for American football. Injuries to some key players for all sports. Otherwise, it can affect the outcome of the match as a whole or on some points in particular.
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A good way to find out what clever money is to compare the line to one event at the time of opening and the day the game starts. If the line has changed by 0.5 points, you can firmly say that the line was not affected by the bets of syndicates. Conversely, if the changes took place more than 1 point, the influence of smart money is noticeable.