Probability Theory – Main Science in Sports Betting

With experience, most bookmaker players are aware that betting is not just about sports. Knowledge in sports is important, they are key in betting, but it is impossible to beat the bookmaker at a distance without understanding the mathematics, the principles of the formation of odds, statistics and probability theory. Over time, the players understand that it is not enough to make accurate predictions for matches, it is more important to find bets by a margin – the so-called values.

How to determine the outcomes with overestimated odds, correctly assess the likelihood of a sporting event, and what does the probability theory mean here – let’s talk about it today and analyze everything with specific examples.

Her Majesty probability theory in sports betting

Probability theory underlies bookmaker bets. In fact, everything is built around probabilities, both odds and chances of a player to win. Without an understanding of this point, you will never succeed in betting. Absolutely all players to a lesser or greater degree take into account the likelihood (chances) when making a bet, although the majority do not think about it.

Consider a simple example: the bookmaker is offering odds of 1.50 to win Barcelona in a match against Seville. If you do not go into details and calculations of probability, this bet is profitable, because the chances of winning Barcelona are quite high. But if they give odds of 1.15, the bet ceases to be attractive. Since the thinking player understands that the probability of losing a bet is relatively high in order to risk a bet at such a tiny ratio.

In order to explain the theory of probability in bets, the example of coin tossing is usually used. We will not reinvent the wheel and deal with this issue with the help of an eagle and tails, especially since this example is the simplest and most understandable. So, the probability of falling eagle – 50% and tails – 50%. Chances are equal.

If you flip a coin ten times, you might get, for example, 7 eagles and 3 tails. Or even ten times in a row the same option. But if we continue to throw further, say, 100 000 times, we get values ​​close to 50% to 50%.

Move this puzzle into the betting plane. You can bet on the fall of the eagle or tails with a factor of 2.00. In order to translate chances into odds, you need to divide by 100 into probability. If you make a hundred thousand bets on the result of a coin flip, the player will eventually go to zero, or the profits/losses will be minimal.

It is a common misconception of players who believe that the probability of the following events depends on the results of previous ones. If tails fell seven times in a row, what is the probability of tipping for the eighth time? This contradicts the intuitive perception of the situation, but the chances are 50 to 50. With each new throw, regardless of the results of previous ones, the probability of each outcome will be 50%. This phenomenon is called a false Monte Carlo output.

Principles of the formation of odds and value

Bookmakers determine the probability of outcomes and translate it into odds, but before there is a list available for betting with different options, two more operations are performed:

1. Setting a margin. Everyone knows that bookmakers are consistently making a profit due to the additional probability percentage – margin. As for a tail and eagle, we said that odds for each outcome should be 2.00. But in reality, such quotes are nowhere to be found, because after adding a margin, odds for equal chances will be from 1.98-1.98 to 1.90-1.90 and below.
2. The change in odds according to the expected proportions of bets from players. In fact, it is more important for bookmakers to predict what the majority will bet, and not to correctly assess odds. If the probability of Home in a Chelsea-Burnley match after taking into account the margin is equal to the odds 1.70, then bookmakers will set up around 1.62.
• New predictions for soccer, tennis, hockey, basketball, etc. are created every hour.

At the expense of margin, bookmakers have an advantage over players, as everyone knows. If you bet on the loss of an eagle and tails by the odds of 1.98 – 1.98, then in the long run you will definitely be in the red. But there is an opportunity not only to level this superiority of bookmakers, but also to get an advantage.

To do this, you need to bet on the value – bets with a margin, outcomes with inflated odds. A conditional example: bets on eagles are accepted with odds of 1.90, and for tails – 2.02. The odds were and remain 50 to 50, but the odds 2.02 indicate that the probability is 49.50% (100/2.02 = 49.50).

Of course, you need to tackle 2.02, which will be beneficial in the long term, this is a situation where the real probability of an outcome is higher than the probability reflected by the odds.

Values are rarely found in the starting line of bookmakers, but due to the movement of the line – the change in odds after the players’ bets – the chances of finding bets with a margin significantly increase.

How to calculate the probability of an event?

If, when playing in a casino, for example, roulette, the probability of a particular result is always known, then in betting on sports you can never calculate the exact probability. And, actually, for this reason betting compares favorably with the casino. You can always find bets that are more likely to be set by the bookmaker. How to do it?

By betting on inflated odds, the player gets an advantage over the bookmaker.

There is no developed method for calculating the probability that would most accurately determine the odds. This is impossible because of the impact on the result of many factors, the unpredictability of sport in general. For example, programs or formulas where you could enter data and get an approximate result. However, the known algorithm of actions to determine the probability of outcomes. Consider its stages.

The study of statistics

By itself, the statistics do not allow to get even an approximate probability. It is wrong to think that if in the previous 10 matches the team tied 3 times, then the probability of a draw outcome in the next match will be 30%. Recall the probability theory, which states that previous events do not affect the probability of future ones. But statistics serves as a starting point, a base, because you need to push off for some reason.

The influence of factors

Having determined the initial probability using statistics, then we should analyze the match, taking into account as many factors as possible. Consequently, after studying the influence of each of them, corrections are made in the calculated probabilities.

It is at the second stage that everything depends on how well the player understands the kind of sport he bets on. No matter how much one wants to understand and structure everything, it is impossible to accurately calculate the odds and determine how a particular factor affects the probability. For each sporting event, a situational approach is needed.

Example of determining the probability of outcomes

Fix the material of the previous paragraph by example. We will evaluate the Arsenal-Liverpool match and study the main line. The odds are as follows: Arsenal win – 2.25, Draw – 3.80, Liverpool win – 3.05. Translate quotes into probability. And we get the following: Home – 44.44%, X – 26.31%, Away – 32.78%.

Now we will calculate the probability, after which we compare it with the bookmaker odds and determine the value, if there is any. Immediately, we note that all the statistics and factors are conditional.

Study the statistics

Arsenal in the last 10 home games scored 8 wins and tied 2 times. We get 80% – 20% – 0%. Liverpool in the previous 10 away games won 6 times, and there were 2 draws and 2 losses. We have 20% – 20% – 60%. Calculate the average value: 50% – 20% – 30%.

After that, we proceed to the second stage – consideration of various factors. First of all, we pay attention to injuries and disqualifications. The guests have almost no losses, while the hosts lost due to damage to the central defender and the left insider. Adjust the probabilities after receiving this information: 46% – 22% – 32%.

Also in the process of pre-match analysis, we learn that Liverpool rested for two days more, while Arsenal played its previous match three days ago. Fatigue may affect. Change the odds: 44% – 23% – 33%.

In-person meetings of teams

In the last five games, two wins of Liverpool and three draws. Of course, Arsenal’s chances are noticeably reduced. We get approximately: 40% – 25% – 35%. No other significant factors were identified, therefore we are finishing the analysis.

The final result is 40% – 25% – 35%, and the bookmaker probabilities Home – 44.44%, X – 26.31%, Away – 32.78%. Thus, the value of a bet on a Liverpool victory is a value – the real probability is 35%, and the odds contain 32.78%.

The more factors taken into account, the higher the chances of correctly determining the probability.

The difficulty is that there are no methods for objectively assessing the probability of a sporting event. The subjective opinion of the player evaluating the match plays a crucial role in the assessment of probability. But there is no other way than the trial and error method. It is necessary to try, use different approaches, improve your methodology, which will allow you to accurately calculate probabilities with experience.