Finding the Best Gambling Value by Betting On Underdogs

We continue to consider various popular layouts, one might even say patterns in football betting. The idea is to consider scenarios with a different balance of forces and chances of teams (a favorite and an outsider with varying degrees of line skew, equal to a match). For such typical situations, we offer the most popular and relevant types of bets, give recommendations on their application, point out the advantages and disadvantages, and assess risks.

From a set of such algorithms, it will be easier for you to select those game strategies that are right for you. They will either match your character or the teams that you usually follow in football. In this particular review we will talk about bets on outsiders. Of course, most newcomers bet on favorites. Is this the reason that more than 90% of them drain their money?

What could be the situation in a football match?

So, if in large strokes, then there are two typical layouts before any football match (as well as before any other sports):

• favorite vs outsider;
• equal match.

It is clear that this is a “black and white” position. If in shades, then the ratio of the odds of the favorite to the outsider can be different, and equality can be conditional. To understand what kind of game is in front of us, we need to analyze and compare the key forecasting factors (motivation, tournament position, class, playing and physical form of opponents, the optimality of squads, calendar density, and so on). For an experienced bettor, such an estimate can take only a few minutes, and beginners certainly need to tinker with collecting and comparing incoming information.

A vision is formed: is there a favorite in the game, and is a probability estimate made on the main outcomes of the match (Home — X — Away, 1X, X2). From the probabilities we get our versions of the odds (dividing 100% by our probability percentage), and we can check the line of the bookmaker. Trying to “predict” and evaluate matches for a favorite right along the BS line is a common mistake of beginners. So that no one tells, any serious bettor with experience knows that the odds do not always correspond to the probabilities.

Loading or direct speculation may affect. As a result, there are seriously underestimated and overvalued quotes. By looking at the distorted odds, the player risks being misled, since objectively the probability is completely different.

And now, the matches for the next day are pre-analyzed. Where the odds ratio turned out to be equal or close and this coincides with the opinion of the bookmaker, we leave it out of the picture for now. We will consider this situation in one of the following publications. We have games where the favorite is viewed, their status also does not cause us doubts and our quotes are close to the shop. Here we are more likely to bet on the favorite. How and what to bet in such cases, we also examined separately. Now we are interested in other layouts. There may be three options.

1. We have a match with a relative favorite. That is, we would put quotes about the following: Home — 1.89, X2 — 1.95. However, in the line of the bookmaker we see a serious bias, for example, Home — 1.55, X2 — 2.50, or even more radical. This difference means either that we made a mistake in the estimates, or on the shoulder of the favorite an unreasonable load. If we make sure that it is the second situation that is taking place, this is an occasion for betting with an emphasis on the outsider, since not a weak advantage was formed on their shoulder.
• Find the best odds for sports betting.
2. We have a match with a clear favorite. That is, the chances of winning one of the teams are much higher than the chances of an opponent at least for a draw. Line, something in the spirit: Home — 1.35, X2 — 3.15, or with an even greater margin. However, according to the forecast, we see problems with the favorite with the defense, and on the contrary, the progress of the attack of the underdog in extreme matches. This is also an occasion to look at the outsider as a side to bet. Of course, the emphasis will be on the goal, and not on the main outcome.
3. Quotes are comparable to the previous example. But now we see that the favorite in extreme games has problems with implementation. For example, one of the attacking players fell out, or the reason for not being played due to the renewal of the roster. Opponent, underdog, in contrast, in games against obviously stronger teams, closes and suffers, and sometimes with success. This alignment is also an occasion to seek a bet far from the favorite.
• New predictions for soccer, tennis, hockey, basketball, etc. are created every hour.

Let’s move on to applied examples, specific types of bets.

Plus handicaps

When analyzing bets on favorites, we mentioned pro handicaps. Basically operated on options with negative arguments: (-1), (-0.75), (-1.5). Anyone who is attentive, or is no longer a beginner, has noticed that in this block of betting shops offer handicaps with plus values. Here they are often considered as an option to bet on an outsider.

From the above scenarios, the first and third are suitable for us. In the first, we believe that the underdog, if it loses, is not large, not crushing, because the bookmaker, along with public opinion, is too overestimating the favorite. In the third example, we do not doubt the success of the favorite, but expect a painful victory in 1, maximum 2 goals.

Handicap (+1)

A handicap (+1) means that to win a bet, a draw or a victory for the underdog will suit us. That is, if you win the favorite in one goal, a refund will occur. For example, the score is 2:1. The difference in the score relative to the side we have chosen (underdog) is plus with the handicap argument:

-1 + (+1) = 0

Return.

If the favorite wins big, with 2 or more goals, then the bet will lose.

This option can only be played if we are looking at least a little underdog odds for a draw. If we do not dispute the leader’s chances of winning at all, then it is better to start the review with a handicap (+1.5).

As for the odds on the handicap (+1), this can be an indicator in the region of 1.75-2.00, just from the example when the victory of the favorite is appreciated in the region of 1.45-1.55. In any case, (+1) for 1.60 and above, you can play with a single bet. If this market is rated lower than the quotation, then we are already talking about the match without such an obvious skew, and this already contradicts the above scenario No. 1.

Handicap (+1.5)

A handicap with a value of (+1.5) is one of the most interesting bets. The beauty is that it can be winning with all three options for the main result. Underdog victory, draw, favorite victory in 1 goal — all these are winning scenarios. We can say that all subsequent plus odds that go to increase the argument also fall under this observation. However, +1.5 is the first bet in this series and is valued by the maximum odds.

You can take odds (+1.5) as a single bet, if the odds have at least exceeded 1.50, or better, 1.60. For example, such a line: Home — 1.41, X2 — 2.95. For +1.5 of the second team we will be offered about 1.60. Accordingly, the stronger the chances of a favorite are overestimated, the more profitable the quote you can play this handicap, at least for 2.50 and higher.

In this case, the main thing is to correctly assess the chances, identify a bias. Very often, newcomers simply “peck” at high odds. The size itself is not so much important as the advantage that it carries. There is no sense in betting +1.5 on the same handicap, at least for 3.30 if less than 30% of such bets win over the distance. Well, to get at least some noticeable profit, it is desirable to show a much larger passage.

Handicap (+2) and higher

If you move on, then depending on the advantage of the favorite, much larger plus handicaps can be represented in the line. For example, a handicap of +2 will give a win under the same conditions as +1.5, and if a favorite of 2 goals wins, they will give a refund. Handicap +2.5 already with a break of two goals will bring a win, but at -3 lose, and so on.

Depending on the match and the degree of dominance of the favorite according to preliminary chances, these markets can be used both for single bets and for composite mini-accumulators. Single bets usually take from 1.50-1.60 and above. All that is lower, respectively, for accumulators from 2-3 events. Again, the point is not in the size of the odds, as such, but in their profitability, superiority.

Double chance

Any main outcome of the match can be represented as a record of the same odds. So, victory, this is a handicap (-0.5), just. A double chance, which we usually used to see as 1X or X2, is a handicap (+0.5). So if +1.5 is a step in one direction from +1, then moving in the opposite direction, we encounter just a handicap +0.5 or a double outcome.

We take +1 option if the draw odds are only visible, but still very timid. A double chance is used when we expect the favorite to land completely in a puddle. And note, we’re not just betting on a draw. Of course, odds of four or higher is good, but we are considering a safer option, covering two outcomes. That is, we already admit even the victory of the underdog, albeit by a small percentage of probability.

Team’s goal

It is time to approach situation No. 2, of those that we examined at the beginning. So, we do not directly dispute the favorite’s chances of winning, but look towards the goals. The basic assumption that the outsider will give the fight at least once will score the favorite.

If on the side of the potential winner the advantage is very substantial, then their opponent’s individual total is more than 0.5, you can take a decent odds for a single bet: from 1.60 to 2.50.

Many will have a question, why not immediately consider here “both teams to score — yes,” thereby increasing the odds by 0.1-0.15. Believe me, don’t! Both teams to score — this is a good bet in equal matches. Here, if we are hooked on an outsider goal — this is just one event. At the same time, both teams to score — these are two events. And not just 2 goals are needed for the entry of the bet, but one on each side, which further complicates the condition.

It turns out a kind of accumulator, only within the framework of one game. With all this, we do not forget that the favorite is likely to load on the shoulder of the favorite. So the goal on their part is quoted by clearly underestimated odds. It is not necessary to burden your bet with such an additional condition, anything can happen. The seeming favorite, especially evaluated incorrectly, may lose dry. The difference between the underdog goal for 1.85 and BS for 1.95 is not worth it.

Both teams to score plus Total Over

If a goal from an outsider is viewed in a game where quotes are set fairly, then all the warnings specified in the paragraph above can be discarded. If we are already expecting a fight, we can’t stop even at the usual bet “both teams to score — yes”, but look at Total Over 2.5 or 3, or at the combined option: both teams to score and Total Over 2.5. For such a combination they usually give excellent odds, especially provided that the bookmaker quotes separately under the goal of the underdog.

Total under

The third scenario, described at the start, can lead the player not only to bets on plus odds. If a game is viscous, difficult for the favorite, then it makes sense to look at the total less. For example, very often you have to see quotes where the favorite is expected to win and the abundance of goals. If the player’s opinion is different, they expect a fight, then you can play on such a contradiction. Once the crowd believes in “top”, then the main total can be set at 3 or 3.5. For Total Over (2.5) they will give 1.50 or even lower. E is an excellent opportunity to start playing with the safety net of Total Under 3. The result is extremely playable odds, close to a deuce.

Total of the first time Under 1

You can develop the theme of the previous bet in a more tricky way. For example, playing the total of the first half is less than one goal. For this, you can take 2.00-2.50 and higher, especially in those games where the bookmaker lifts the total. Logic is about the same as with the overall totals match less than three. When an outsider gives a fight, they especially successfully rest in the first half, as long as there is enough freshness, speed, and the favorite cannot pick up the keys to defense in defense. This can be observed all the time.

The second half and the overall result of the match are not interesting to us. And it’s great, because in the end the underdog can get tired and lose. Having missed a couple of goals at the end, you can swim, and there the defeat is just around the corner. So if it’s good to select events, such an exotic bet option may even be preferable. The condition with one goal, for a refund, if that, additionally insures the player.

Individual Total Under 1

All the above types of bets, to one degree or another, are repelled by the outsider in the positive sense that they will not lose or score so much. But there is another approach, also under-centered, but with a negative sign. We consider an individual total, but take less than one goal.

This option is relevant when the favorite is evaluated adequately, without underestimating the odds. Then on ITU (1) outsiders give tolerable indicators, from 1.30 to 1.50. Of these, average accumulators or ladders are usually typed to collect the final high odds.

Why not ITU (1.5) and not ITU (0.5)? Very simple. Matches are selected where the outsider has little chance of hitting the gates of a stronger opponent. So for “1.5 less” will give too low odds. On the other hand, a random one goal can always happen. It will kill the bet “0.5 less.” From one — this is a “Solomon decision”, under the return, in case of one goal.

Conclusions

It is quite possible to bet on outsiders. In many wagers based in this area, more is, common sense than “blind” bets on the obvious favorites. If you approach the matter wisely, you can successfully dilute other game strategies with such bets.

You probably noticed that when reviewing the bets on outsiders we did not mention such popular financial strategies as Martingale or Ladder. In fact, this is not surprising. Betting on outsiders, especially by newbies, is risky. They, most likely, will line up in a rather long series of minuses and will ruin your bank when playing Martingale. And they will not allow you to collect series of 4-5 series of pluses in a row to effectively play with ladders.

So it’s better to practice the indicated bets with a flat, or according to other algorithms where independent bets are used, either single bets or mini-accumulators. And only then, feeling them very well, with some experimental get to the soft versions of Martingale. But for ladders, such options are of little use, even in the performance of experienced ones. Only the last mentioned bet type, ITU (1), is quite reasonably suitable for building series.