Answering the Eternal Question: Betting on a Favorite or Outsider?

In every football (and any other) game, only two options for the pre-match scenario are possible:

• a meeting of equal teams;
• a favorite and an outsider meeting.

For a particular analyst, this could be a dark horse game. But this only means that betting on such a game should not be done. Since the bettor is not familiar with the teams and their capabilities, is not able to determine at least a preliminary balance of power, then such a game is eliminated immediately.

It must be said right away that the favorite in the match is determined not by a big name and not lower odds on their victory in the line. Not! You must follow the championship and the idea of ​​the advantage of the team should be your conscious conclusion, based on the available information.

How to determine this? When you regularly follow the championship — this question does not arise. An indicative set of factors for this is as follows:

• classes of teams;
• cost of players;
• club ambitions;
• the optimality of the compositions;
• the presence of a long equivalent “bench”;
• current form, based on recent matches.

The player involved in the topic needs only one glance at the names of the teams in order to reveal a nominal favorite or to establish equality. This is not to say that the favorite must win. Not! So far, we are only determining the preliminary alignment in order to generally understand whether to consider the match further or not. Of course, the same total cost of the team players is absolutely not an argument for the victory of the team. But to determine the status of a nominal favorite, a team with great ambitions — it allows.

If we cannot immediately determine the favorite and the outsider in the match, then we have a match of equal teams. Such games have their own approach. Of course, they should not be considered in terms of bets on the main outcome. But, as an object for selection by totals — completely.

How to define a team class?

Usually experienced bettors have been following the chosen sport for many years. For them are not a secret past achievements of the club. You need to have an idea of ​​what places the team occupied in the championship of their country in the past 5-10 seasons.

Stable successes and even average results mean that this is not an upstart for one season, that the club’s infrastructure and finances make it possible to give out just such a level of play. Therefore, such a team attracts players of a certain class to its ranks. So a beginner can open past championship tables and fill in some gaps for themselves.

Any team can have a recession in one season, or a sharp, but short segment of explosive growth. An experienced forecaster will be especially careful to look at, for example, Valencia in Spain, Everton in England, or Lille in France, marking the bottom of the standings. The recent failed segments of these clubs perfectly illustrate that judging a team’s capabilities only by its current position in the table is a mistake.

It is important to understand the very class that we are talking about in order to be aware of the discrepancy between the place that the team is currently taking and its ambitions. This means only one thing, that there will be a moment and the club will regain its usual position. A competent bettor will surely catch the moment of separation of such a team from the bottom, and earn on its upward march.

You can understand implicitly about the class of a team by comparing the size of club budgets. There are more or less successful transfer companies. But almost always money injections bring results and by this indicator the class of teams can be determined at a distance of 2-3 seasons. Team costs correlate very well with owners’ ambitions. If money is invested to get into the Eurocup zone, then coaches and players will be changed until the goal is reached and the funds are repelled.

You can roughly see the prices of players on the “transfer market.” If in one team one player stands as half the composition of the opponent, and the team loses, this is a sign of the very discrepancy between the class and the result. You need to carefully watch the games. When the team shows progress — bet on it.

Going down the ladder of factors, they are already looking at the optimal composition at the moment, for a specific match, at the current form. It may turn out that, nominally, the favorite is in poor playability, and even lost 2-3 of their leaders due to injuries. In such a situation, the analyst can rightly assess that the expected match will be equal, that the factors that made one of the teams favorite are leveled.

Favorite betting

That’s why they’re a favorite to claim victory in the match. In an extreme case, not a loss or goals scored.

Identification of the favorite in the match is the starting point of the analysis, and not the final one. Alas, for most players the analysis here ends. Just load on the favorite. Then they sit and wait for money. This is the wrong approach, to put it mildly.

We also need to impose all other analysis factors to confirm the status of the favorite, or to doubt them. Motivation for a specific match, form, composition optimality, calendar and so on. We talked a lot about the prediction factors of football matches in other articles on the website.

If all the factors add up to the favorite and there are no serious arguments against it, we base our bets on it. Of course, the degree of preliminary advantage of one of the teams may be different. If the favorite in the match is too obvious, then the odds in the betting line will be loaded, underestimated.

Recalling the theory of Value Betting, we understand that it is not worth taking bets that are too overloaded. You need to stay within reasonable limits. If the odds are lower than expected by 0.15-0.2, then it doesn’t need to make such a bet on the favorite.

That is why we do not recommend considering matches involving TOP teams when they play with explicit outsiders. In the games of Real Madrid, Barcelona, ​​Bavaria, PSG, Manchester City and other TOPs, the odds for these teams are very underestimated. You do not need to bet on them! If you choose bets on the favorite, then the difference in class between the favorite and the outsider should not be so “cosmic”. Over distance, underestimating the odds will cause serious damage to the player’s bank. Bets on the favorite, you need to do if the odds are reasonable, commensurate with the predicted probability.

It is especially good to find the so-called “shadow favorites”. These are teams that at the current stage of the season show unusual stability for themselves. Regularly take points, score goals, win. Identifying such teams and related trends is very valuable! Bookmakers on such short- and medium-term favorites give either adequate odds, or even overvalued, “valued” ones.

Betting on favorites is good because they are logical! After all, the victory of the one who should have been is a natural result. Strength was calculated correctly. The team simply projected its strength in a particular match and defeated an opponent. With the correct assessment of the teams, it is from the bets on the favorites that the longest series of victories is obtained. Of course, any series is interrupted.

Favorites also lose, fail bets. It happens that in live you can’t play it safe and save a separate bet or the next step of the “ladder”. This is all clear. But if you minimize your mistakes in the assessment of teams, then the defeats will be associated only with force majeure, in the form of deletions, penalties of varying degrees of “leftism”, errors of the judge. In this situation, it is already possible to catch a series of victories and carry out “ladders”, to play successfully with short accumulators.

Outsider betting

It happens that a detailed analysis of the upcoming match leads us to understand that a nominal favorite is not such a favorite. For example, if we talk about the nominal outsider of the match: the team is lower class, but gives a good series, imposes a fight on strong opponents, is not inferior to its peers. Or, on the side of the favorite, there are problems, for example, injuries, disqualifications of players, a difficult calendar, functional decline.

But in the BS line this is often not reflected at all. Anyway, the favorite remains the favorite. Here you need to turn on the better. This is an opportunity to bet, starting from an outsider. Somewhere it will even be a bet on an outsider zero handicap. It happens that we manage to take the odds for such an event in the region of 3.00 or more. Sometimes you can play a double outcome, 1X, X2, with nice odds in the region of 2.00 or higher. It sometimes makes sense to play a positive handicap Home (+1), Home (+1.5), Home (+2) on an outsider, if the odds are high enough. Or for an individual total of an outsider — ITO (0.5) or ITO (1).

As a rule, it is on the underdogs that it is possible to take “value” bets with overestimated odds. The indicators on the favorite are sagging, and the back shoulder, on the outsider, is just rising. If the forecast is reasonable, then this should be taken.

Very important disclaimer. Outsider bets are only suitable for flat, for single bets. It’s not worthwhile to include moves on the underdogs in the “ladders”. On the main outcomes — that’s for sure. For goals, for individual totals, you can, if you have confidence, if the favorite’s defense is “full of holes” and regularly allows themselves to score.

Equal teams betting

But if the teams are equal, then there is no need to bet on the main outcomes. Do not make money, twist, invent something. The maximum that can be found in matches of equal teams is betting on goals. If both teams are predisposed to an active game in attack and not to the most reliable defense — this is an option to consider bets on Total Over. Actually, that’s all.

So, if there are no reasonable prerequisites for betting on Total Over, we simply skip matches of equal teams as the most unpredictable.

Total Under can also be considered. But if the game is equal, then surprises are much more possible than in games where there is a clear balance of power.

Matches stand out with a loud sign, meetings between the TOP teams. Oh, how our betting people love to “charge” money for such games and epic “fly over”. You cannot say otherwise. This craving to “lose on the great” always surprises from time to time.

There is a tough divide between football for viewing, for intrigue, and football for making money on bets. Of course, it is always more interesting to watch the unpredictable match of two great clubs. But to earn money on bets, we do not need intrigue, from the word at all. We need understandable logical outcomes, supported by pre-match hands on many factors at once.

Meanwhile, among the betting public, forecasts for TOP matches are very much in demand. This suggests that people do not understand at all. Equal matches, and even at such a level — this is not at all an object for bets. Learn it and share it. Watch some matches purely for fun. If you directly “itch” to bet, then bet on a virtual account, verifier, or for a minimum amount. And the main bank, hold serious money for events in unequal matches, where everything is much more clear.

Match analysis: bet selection

And now, after the dropout, we have just a few matches that we understand. Matches where there is a favorite and an outsider. Where we already assume, from which team we will start from. Where there is a preliminary idea, what to bet on.

It remains for us to consider each match through the prism of those types of bets that are most relevant and safe in football betting.

Since each match is unique, and the forecasting process is creativity, the only way to clarify something in this section is to give a few typical schematic situations.

Example No. 1. Favorite

First, consider the situation if the favorite plays at home.

We determine what is most likely to be seen: the hosts’ victory or goals on their part. Accordingly, if you win, then consider bets on:

• Double outcome, 1X;
• Handicap 1 (0);
• Victory, Home;
• Handicap 1 (-1).

If more confidence in goals than as a result, consider:

• ITO 1 (1);
• ITO 1 (1.5);
• ITO 1 (2).

If we are talking about the shadow favorite, according to the information available to you, then even for Handicap 1 (0) you can take normal odds, starting from 1.60 and higher. If you are sure, we take such an outcome for both the “ladder” and the “flat”. If the confidence does not hold out for the short flight of stairs, we only take it with a flat.

If the favorite is not shadow, but recognized and obvious to everyone, as a rule, at 1X, Home (0), ITO 1 (1) there will be low odds, ranging from 1.20-1.60.When analyzing weekend matches, several such confident outcomes can be found. Expressions, doubles or tees can be formed from these outcomes. It is possible to use betting systems, insuring yourself against 1-2 losses. Depending on the degree of our confidence in these outcomes, we can put down doubles such as “flat bets” or include them in the “ladder”.

The second option is to start watching live and catch higher odds there.

If there is confidence in the victory of the favorite at home, then we can take a clear victory for Home with a flat. If you see not just a victory, but a defeat, we can play a “flat” Handicap 1 (-1).

If you are more confident in goals, then we can take ITO 1 (1.5), ITO 1 (2) as a “flat”.

Or, we divide the standard bet for one match between these outcomes. Between two of them, or between all three. All individually for each particular match.

If we are talking about a meeting at a party, then everything is the same. Only double acting cautiously. Once again, we play it safe with zero handicap and more restrained individual totals. After all, it is on a visit that the favorites most often lose points, allow misfires.

Example No. 2. Outsider

We look at the prospects of an outsider. Since we are generally considering this option, it means there is information about some strength that give the outsider a chance, and/or about the weaknesses of a nominal favorite.

Here again, the direction of the bet selection is divided into two vectors. Or the fact that the outsider will not lose: 1X, X2, Home (0); loses not big: Home (+1), Home (+1.5), Home (+2); or that they will score a goal: ITO (0.5), ITO (1). We estimate which of the developments is more likely, and we select those bets.

As mentioned above, betting on an outsider is only suitable for “flat.” For “ladders” they are unsuitable. If you can still consider goals at your own peril and risk, then the main outcomes are definitely not.

Example No. 3. Equal teams

If the teams have strong attacks and not very reliable defenses, we choose the option of betting on Total Over: Total Over (2), Total Over (2.5), Total Over (3), BTTS + Total Over (2.5). We do not meddle in the main outcomes. We use only flat, or other uniform financial strategies.

Or in a meeting of two closed teams, we try to catch Total Under: Total Under (2), Total Under (2.5). Betting on “BTTS — no” should be perceived as very risky.

Reception: “Spin dry”

In a saturated gaming weekend, no more than 8-10 bets should be made. Approximately 3-4 bets per game day is a normal indicator. What to do if you have selected more than 10-20 options for bets for the next weekend?

Here it’s worth rejoicing. This is not the case when there are few events, and you have to keep yourself strict, so as not to drag some dubious bet. From the bigger, it’s always easier to do the smaller by increasing the quality of the sample.

We take and compare events, comparing our confidence in them. Make up your own rating. Mark matches and pre-selected bets with asterisks, from one to three, according to the degree of confidence in the result. Clearly ensure that there are less than a dozen bets left. Having sifted out everything that you are less sure of — you will only narrow your focus, “wring it dry.”

Why are there so few matches?

Firstly, the more events you try to cover, the lower the quality of the forecasts. Some information will be missed, grabbed at the top, fragments. Of course, this will not slow down on the bets passing for the worse. Secondly, you physically will not be able to watch more than 10 football matches over the weekend. That is the whole simple answer. Thirdly, such a deep multi-level screening allows you to make the most confident bets. Allows you not to spray, not risk your money on dubious outcomes.

Be sure to aim for fewer bets. And if the excitement awakens and pushes to bet on the screened ones — just bet them virtually: in a notebook, on a verifier, on virtual accounts. This has already been discussed earlier. This is a sure way to save money.